Category: 2013 (2)

real-estate-market2

With national forecasts citing an overheated market in decline and calling for a further correction in real estate values, it’s curious to watch the Calgary Real Estate market out-perform most every other City and region in the country. Much of this performance is due to the hang-over from the recent run of strong net in-migration, due to a buoyant job market in Alberta. The question is when will the hang-over end and will Calgary succumb to the negative national trend despite our favourable geography and oil economy?

Calgary employment  growth for 2013 is forecast to decline, yet remain positive at 2.3% with net migration for Calgary expected to slow to just over 15,000 over the next two years. This steady stream of new residents has fueled an increased demand for rental accommodation resulting in an apartment vacancy rate under 1.3%. This all points to a positive, yet somewhat reduced pace of activity that fuels the Calgary real estate market.

With the recent surge in rental activity and subsequent increase in rental rates one could be tempted to purchase rental property based on the recent higher returns, but are these rents sustainable for the long term? We advise that any rental properties are evaluated using conservative rent estimates especially those based on furnished rentals. Also note that vacancy for furnished rentals is similar to that of Hotel properties (in the 20-40% range) so don’t be fooled into using unfurnished vacancy rates and applying these to furnished properties, despite our current hot market. One exception could be buying rental properties that have a high component of land value, especially in inner city communities. These properties could derive good income from the building for many years, yet the land value may surpass its’ income value, if the trend toward inner-city community development continues.

Farmland also has potential as a solid income producing vehicle, but be sure to know what you’re buying. While crop rents have increased dramatically (proportional to crop prices), soil types, local geography, irrigation and overburdened crops all have a profound effect on the return a farmer can extract from a section of land. Again there may be other exit options for farm land such as future development potential or subdivision to smaller parcels. This can yield large returns but not for the faint of heart or uninitiated. If you are not the expert, be certain to obtain expert advice (the cost of which could yield you the best return for your investment).

One of the best strategies today for those who already hold real estate is to optimize your investment. That means reducing your operating costs and improving efficiency of the property. Some of the greatest benefits can be derived from reducing the energy requirements and  greening your real estate. This not only reduces your consumption and cost of energy, but also improves the desirability of your property. Green Calgary offers a valuable home audit that provides excellent advice on greening your home and reducing its energy footprint. With the cost of solar electric continuing to decline we are now coming into an age that photo-voltaic systems are becoming cost effective. It won’t be long before you may be asking “how much energy does this property generate and how much income does it produce?” Don’t overlook these possibilities and the potential value of solar exposure when evaluating your next  property.

Overall, it appears that the market may reduce from a rolling boil to a slow simmer over the next few years which calls for a return to a more sober, long term view of any real estate investment. Reducing operating costs could help you weather future bumps in the road, and exploring alternate exit strategies can add tremendous value if the need for Return Of Investment becomes more important than the need for Return On Investment.

Hot-Real-Estate-Market
Wondering what YYC real estate is doing in 2013? We checked out the latest trends and  hot spots to keep you riding the wave.

  1. Tighter Inventory and a faster moving market: While the rest of the world took a real estate holiday the Calgary real estate market has been chugging along quite well (thank you very much) and steadily chewing up any over supply of  inventory left over from the 07 bump. Inventory has been steadily dropping across all categories but most noticeably in the single family mid-range market.
  2. Gentrification is the new normal: Mature, inner- city communities and those with plenty of walkable amenities are blushing with all the attention they’re getting. Buyers are not shy about knocking down modest homes on good lots or renovating homes that have the bones and adequate floor plate.
  3. Mortgage rates will remain low: However, banks have not opened up the taps to ease the flow of cash to new buyers. This is keeping the brakes on the market nationally and puts a squeeze on first time buyers or those who need to refinance. This keeps a lid on the entry level market but upper end buyers have capital so expect some cautious expansion in the premium and luxury arenas.
  4. An ample supply of starter homes and apartments: Condo prices rose the least over any other sector this past year due to a fairly competitive market and a good supply of new developments. Developers are upbeat and many national developers are focusing their effort in Calgary bringing some fresh products and new innovation to this market.
  5. Price Increases will be moderate for Condos: The condo markets experienced a 3% increase last year. Expect that this steady price increase will continue and likely accelerate this year. Rising construction costs and the depletion of cheaper land will bear on the prices as developers have nowhere to go except pass on these increases to buyers.
  6. Rental Boom: There, we said the B word, and it applies right now to the rental market. A tighter mortgage market lends to a better rental market. It also appears that many of the new local hires are provided a leased property to supplement their 2 or 3 year employment contracts. As a result, the market for both bare and furnished rentals has boomed over the past couple years. This had the positive effect of absorbing some excess inventory that Buyers purchased in 07, and keeping many properties off the market that otherwise would be currently available for sale. Be cautious to purchase investment property based on inflated rental rates unless you have good reason to believe they are  sustainable. Keep an eye on this trend, as it will be interesting to see what our real estate market will look like in 2015-16 when many of these rentals come back to market.
  7. Bedroom Communities are wide awake: Developers have discovered that it’s cheaper and easier to develop in neighboring communities than more expensive and onerous Calgary subdivisions. With City Hall levying higher taxes on suburban builders to more reflect the real cost of services they tap into, Developers are voting with their feet and developing where they can get the best leverage. This means more focus on these bedroom communities outside the City and that’s where we saw much of the action this past year. Expect this to continue in the short term until these bedroom communities start to realize they face the same challenges as Calgary (and implement similar solutions to pay for infrastructure).
  8. Infills get better: Attached is the new normal and three storey infills become more common. Accompanying this trend, look for builders to provide (roughed in) elevators as a new standard to accommodate a broader demographic of Buyer. Cottage homes above garages will receive more attention, as well as underground basement access from the home to the detached garage. These tunnels can be used for additional space, storage, wine rooms and such and don’t add to your development footprint.

For more insights into the Calgary real estate market or your Calgary neighborhood contact us